Výsledky projektuSektor energetiky

The following analysis presents a comprehensive assessment of the employment effects associated with different electricity-sector scenarios in Slovakia. Building on the methodology developed within the DEEPLAB project, the results provide quantitative estimates of labour demand across technological pathways, skill structures, sectoral composition, and temporal dynamics.

Four scenarios are examined, each representing distinct trajectories for the Slovak electricity sector. The baseline scenario (WEM) reflects current policy measures and technological trends. The policy-reinforced scenario (WAM) incorporates additional climate and energy policies consistent with existing commitments. The circular economy scenario (ZEM) integrates circularity principles alongside accelerated decarbonisation. Finally, the 100% renewables scenario (WWS) envisions a full transition to renewable energy by mid-century, phasing out both fossil fuels and nuclear generation.

The employment estimates combine direct and upstream effects, capturing not only jobs created within the electricity sector itself but also those generated along supply chains. Direct employment includes jobs in construction, operation, and maintenance of power plants and infrastructure. Upstream employment encompasses broader economic linkages through equipment manufacturing, materials supply, transport, financial services, and other related industries. This distinction is crucial for understanding the full employment footprint of energy transitions.

The analysis also examines the structure of labour demand by skill level, using the OECD International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) as a framework. High-skilled occupations include professional and technical roles, medium-skilled occupations encompass trades and technical support, and low-skilled positions cover elementary occupations.

This graph presents the direct employment requirements associated with investments in electricity generation capacity and the operation and maintenance of existing infrastructure. Employment requirements are reported separately for investment-related jobs and for jobs linked to ongoing operations. Both components are expressed in thousands of persons. Investment-related employment is temporary and depends on the pace and scale of capacity expansion, while operation and maintenance employment provides more stable, long-term jobs.

Across scenarios, employment requirements are influenced by the technological composition of the electricity system and by the timing of infrastructure development. Investment employment peaks during periods of intensive deployment, particularly in scenarios with large-scale renewable energy expansion. Operation and maintenance employment grows steadily as installed capacity increases, reflecting the cumulative build-up of generation assets over time.

Differences across scenarios are substantial. In the baseline WEM scenario, employment requirements grow more moderately, reflecting gradual technological change and limited expansion of new capacities. In the WAM scenario, which assumes additional climate policies, labour demand increases more strongly, supported by higher investment activity and accelerated deployment of low-carbon technologies.

More transformative pathways lead to the largest employment effects. In the Circular (ZEM) scenario, labour demand is shaped by efficiency improvements, changes in the technology mix, and reduced production due to the application of circularity principles, resulting in a lower overall employment potential compared to other ambitious scenarios. In contrast, the 100% renewables scenario generates the highest labour demand, reaching approximately 56 thousand jobs by 2050, which represents an increase of nearly 75% compared with current employment levels.

Overall, the results show that higher climate ambition is associated with higher potential labour demand in the energy sector, mainly due to the more labour-intensive nature of renewable technologies and the larger installed capacities required.

In this graph, we show the potential employment demand under hypothetical situation of all production value chains being present in the territory of Slovakia. It indicates high additional potential for job creation if more investments are realized here.

The results indicate a substantial additional potential for job creation, particularly in scenarios with higher climate ambition. In the 100% renewables scenario, investment-related employment peaks at approximately 231 thousand jobs in 2030, reflecting the large-scale deployment of renewable capacity. Even in later years, investment-driven labour demand remains significant, reaching about 96 thousand jobs in 2040 and 84 thousand jobs by 2050. Employment related to operation and maintenance increases steadily from 24 thousand jobs in 2019 to approximately 56 thousand jobs by 2050, providing a more stable long-term demand for labour.

The WAM scenario also exhibits considerable employment potential, with investment-related jobs reaching approximately 126 thousand in 2040 before declining to around 100 thousand by 2050. Operation and maintenance employment follows a similar upward trajectory, growing to about 53 thousand jobs by mid-century.

In the Circular (ZEM) scenario, investment employment peaks sharply at around 144 thousand jobs in 2040, driven by the intensive deployment of renewables during the transitional phase when nuclear capacity is temporarily reduced. By 2050, as the energy system stabilizes and nuclear capacity is partially restored, investment-related employment drops to about 18 thousand jobs. Operation and maintenance employment, however, increases steadily, reaching approximately 44 thousand jobs by 2050.

Even in the baseline WEM scenario, employment potential shows moderate growth. Investment-related jobs rise from about 33 thousand in 2019 to around 43 thousand by 2050, while operation and maintenance employment increases from 24 thousand to 48 thousand jobs over the same period.

These results demonstrate that the energy transition represents not only a pathway to decarbonisation but also a significant opportunity for employment creation, provided that domestic manufacturing capacities and supply chains are strengthened to capture a larger share of investment-related activities.

Employment in fossil-fuel-related sectors declines across all scenarios, as electricity progressively substitutes for carbon-intensive fuels. The highest decrease is in the renewables scenario which expects decline by 27 ths jobs by 2050. Interestingly, the WAM (NECP) scenario also predicts a substantial decline of 25 ths jobs.

In this graph, we show the net change in employment requirements resulting from the energy transition, combining investment-related employment, operation and maintenance employment, and job losses associated with the substitution of fossil fuels by electricity. The results therefore provide a more balanced picture of employment outcomes, as they consider both job creation in low-carbon energy generation technologies and job losses associated with the decline of fossil-based activities.

Employment requirements are reported separately for the three main effects, and all values are expressed in thousands of persons.

In the 100% renewables scenario investment-related employment peaks at about 17 thousand jobs in 2030, before declining to around 6 thousand jobs by 2050. Employment from operation and maintenance rising from approximately 24 thousand jobs in 2019 to around 56 thousand jobs by 2050. At the same time, job losses associated with fossil-fuel substitution intensify, reaching approximately 27 thousand by 2050.

In the WAM scenario, investment-related employment remains relatively stable, fluctuating between 6 and 10 thousand jobs, while operation and maintenance employment grows from around 24 thousand jobs in 2019 to approximately 53 thousand jobs by 2050. Fossil-fuel substitution leads to job losses of about –26 thousand jobs by 2050, partially offsetting the gains from low-carbon investments.

The baseline WEM scenario shows that investment-related employment declines gradually, while O&M employment increases to about 48 thousand jobs by 2050. However, substitution effects remain limited compared to more ambitious scenarios, reaching around –8 thousand jobs by 2050, resulting in a modest net employment effect.

In the Circular (ZEM) scenario, investment-related employment declines sharply after 2040 while, employment gains from operation and maintenance increase to approximately 44 thousand jobs by 2050. Substitution effects are strong, with job losses reaching about –33 thousand jobs by 2050, reflecting extensive replacement of fossil-based activities.

Overall, the results highlight that the net employment impact of the energy transition is complex and depends on the interplay between job creation in low-carbon sectors and job displacement in fossil-based industries. While more ambitious decarbonisation scenarios generate higher employment in renewable energy, they also lead to larger substitution effects in fossil fuel sectors.

The structure of employment across electricity technologies evolves differently under each scenario, reflecting alternative technological pathways and investment strategies.

In the graph, we show the total employment requirements (direct and upstream) by electricity source, distinguishing between renewable, nuclear, and non-renewable. The results illustrate how the structure of employment across electricity technologies evolves over time and differs across scenarios.

In the baseline WEM scenario, employment remains concentrated in nuclear electricity generation throughout the period. Nuclear-related employment increases from approximately 15.6 thousand jobs in 2019 to around 27 thousand jobs by 2050, while employment in renewable technologies grows more modestly, reaching only about 21 thousand jobs by 2050.

In the WAM scenario, the employment structure shifts more visibly towards renewables. Renewable-related employment increases from about 7.8 thousand jobs in 2019 to approximately 34 thousand jobs by 2050, overtaking nuclear employment, which reaches around 24 thousand jobs.

The Circular (ZEM) scenario exhibits a more dynamic evolution of employment structure. Renewable employment rises sharply from 7.8 thousand jobs in 2019 to around 27 thousand jobs by 2050.

The 100% renewables scenario represents the most pronounced structural shift. Renewable employment increases steadily from approximately 7.8 thousand jobs in 2019 to 47 thousand jobs in 2030, 51 thousand jobs in 2040, and over 62 thousand jobs by 2050. In this scenario, employment linked to nuclear and non-renewable electricity generation declines to zero by mid-century, resulting in 100% of electricity-related employment being concentrated in renewable technologies.

Overall, the graph highlights that the long-term structure of employment in the electricity sector is highly sensitive to the chosen technological pathway. While less ambitious scenarios preserve a significant role for nuclear employment, more ambitious decarbonisation pathways lead to a dominant role for renewables and a progressive decline of employment associated with fossil-based electricity generation.

In the graph, we show the sectoral composition of upstream employment generated by investments in electricity technologies. Upstream employment includes jobs created along the supply chain, such as in construction, manufacturing, transport, finance, retail, and other supporting industries. All values are expressed in thousands of persons.

The stacked bar charts illustrate how upstream labour demand is distributed across individual sectors and how this structure evolves over time and across scenarios. The results indicate that upstream employment is closely linked to investment cycles and to the technological composition of the electricity system, with different scenarios generating distinct sectoral employment patterns.

Across all scenarios, manufacturing and service-related sectors account for a substantial share of upstream employment. Manufacturing sectors—particularly those linked to metal and mineral industries, machinery, and electrical equipment—play a key role throughout the transition, reflecting their importance in the production of energy technologies and infrastructure. These sectors experience the strongest growth in scenarios with higher renewable deployment, where demand for new equipment and components is greatest.

At the same time, the composition of upstream employment gradually shifts towards service sectors, including finance, transport, and sales and retail, especially in later years. This reflects the maturation of the energy system and the increasing importance of operation, maintenance, and supporting services once major investment phases are completed.

Construction represents a significant component of upstream employment during periods of intensive capacity expansion. This effect is particularly visible in the circular and 100% renewables scenarios, where large-scale deployment of new infrastructure leads to a marked increase in construction-related jobs, especially between 2030 and 2040. As investment activity slows towards mid-century, construction employment stabilises or declines, while service-related employment becomes relatively more important.

Overall, the graph highlights that the energy transition generates substantial employment effects beyond the electricity sector itself, with significant implications for a wide range of upstream industries. The results underline the central role of manufacturing and construction during investment-intensive phases, alongside a gradual shift towards service-sector employment as the energy system matures.

These charts show how total employment in the electricity sector is distributed across different generation technologies—renewables, nuclear, and other sources—over time and across scenarios. The figures combine both direct and upstream employment effects, providing an overview of how the technological structure of the energy system shapes the structure of jobs.

In the baseline WEM scenario, employment remains strongly concentrated in nuclear energy. In 2019, nuclear accounts for approximately 49% of total jobs, compared with 24% in renewables and 27% in non-renewable sources. By 2050, the structure shifts moderately: nuclear still represents about 52% of employment, while renewables increase to 41%, and non-renewable sources decline to 7%.

In the WAM scenario, which assumes additional climate policies, the transition towards renewables is more pronounced. By 2040, renewables account for approximately 57% of total employment, overtaking nuclear at 40%. This structure remains broadly stable through 2050, with renewables continuing to dominate and non-renewable sources falling to a marginal share.

The Circular (ZEM) scenario shows a more dynamic transition. Renewable employment grows from 24% in 2019 to about 73% by 2040, reflecting accelerated deployment of renewable technologies during the nuclear decommissioning phase. By 2050, the renewable share declines slightly to 59%, while nuclear employment rises again to around 35% as new nuclear capacity is introduced.

The most radical transformation occurs in the 100% renewables scenario. Here, employment shifts rapidly towards renewable technologies. The renewable share rises from 24% in 2019 to 88% by 2030, 95% by 2040, and ultimately reaches 100% by 2050. In this scenario, employment associated with nuclear and fossil-based technologies disappears entirely.

Overall, the charts show that the technological pathway chosen for the energy transition has a decisive impact on the long-term structure of employment in the electricity sector.

The figure illustrates labour demand by skill level over time across individual decarbonisation scenarios. Skill levels are classified according to the OECD ISCO methodology. The analysis focuses on structural changes in the skill composition of labour demand, independent of its absolute size.

The skill-structure charts show that:

• High-skilled workers consistently account for about 52–56% of total employment.
• Medium-skilled workers represent roughly 40–45%.
• Low-skilled employment remains below 5%, declining slightly over time and reaching as low as 0.8% in the circular scenario by 2050.

These results suggest that the energy transition will continue to rely heavily on skilled labour. The dominance of high- and medium-skilled occupations reflects the technological complexity of both nuclear and renewable energy systems, as well as the growing importance of engineering, technical, and digital skills.

The energy transition is likely to have differentiated employment effects by gender, reflecting differences in the occupational and sectoral structure of employment. The figure presents an overview of the gender composition of labour demand in the electricity sector, distinguishing between male and female employment across skill levels and over time.

In 2019, the electricity sector is characterised by a strong male dominance, especially in high- and medium-skilled jobs. Male workers account for approximately 88% of total high-skilled employment, 78% of medium-skilled employment, and around 60% of low-skilled employment. The overall gender structure is therefore highly unequal, with women representing a modest share across all skill levels.

By 2050, the gender composition is projected to evolve, though differences persist. In the WEM and WAM scenarios, male employment continues to dominate. However, the share of female employment in high-skilled occupations increases slightly to around 15–17%, while the medium-skilled share reaches approximately 25–28%. In low-skilled positions, the gender structure remains relatively balanced.

The Circular (ZEM) and 100% renewables scenarios exhibit similar patterns, with a modest but visible increase in the representation of women across all skill levels by 2050. Nevertheless, male workers continue to account for the vast majority of employment in both high- and medium-skilled categories.

The limited change in gender composition over time can be attributed to structural factors, such as persistent gender imbalances in STEM education and vocational training, as well as cultural and institutional barriers affecting occupational choices. The electricity sector remains a male-dominated field, particularly in technical and engineering roles, which form the core of both traditional and renewable energy systems.

Overall, the results suggest that the energy transition, in itself, is unlikely to lead to a fundamental reshaping of gender structures in the electricity sector without targeted policy interventions. While some occupations, particularly in services and administration, may offer more opportunities for gender balance, the continued dominance of technical and construction-related jobs reinforces existing patterns. Policymakers may need to consider active measures—such as targeted training programmes, inclusive recruitment strategies, and awareness campaigns—to promote greater gender equality in the energy workforce.

The geographical distribution of employment opportunities generated by the energy transition is an important dimension of its social and territorial impacts. The interactive map illustrates the estimated employment generated by solar energy across Slovak districts, providing a visual representation of how employment in renewable energy technologies is distributed spatially.

The map indicates that employment in solar energy is not evenly distributed across the country. Instead, it is concentrated in regions with high solar potential, available land for large-scale installations, and favourable conditions for investment. Districts in the southern and western parts of Slovakia tend to benefit most from solar employment, reflecting both higher levels of solar irradiation and stronger economic activity.

In contrast, mountainous and rural districts in the north and east exhibit lower levels of solar-related employment. These regions often face geographical constraints, lower population density, and weaker infrastructure, all of which limit the attractiveness of large-scale solar investments. However, smaller-scale or decentralised renewable projects may still create localised employment opportunities in these areas, although their overall contribution remains relatively modest.

The spatial concentration of employment has important policy implications. Regions that benefit from higher levels of solar employment may experience positive economic multiplier effects, including increased demand for construction, services, and local supply chains. Conversely, regions with low renewable energy potential or limited access to investment may face challenges in capturing the employment benefits of the energy transition.

From a distributional perspective, the results suggest that targeted regional policies may be needed to ensure that the benefits of the energy transition are shared more evenly across the country. This could include measures to support smaller-scale renewable projects in less favoured regions, as well as active labour market policies and training programmes tailored to local needs. Addressing territorial disparities is essential to ensure that the energy transition is both economically efficient and socially inclusive.

The decarbonisation of the electricity sector requires substantial financial investment. The transition to low-carbon technologies involves upfront capital costs for building new infrastructure, decommissioning outdated facilities, and upgrading transmission and distribution networks. Understanding the scale, timing, and composition of these investment requirements is essential for policy planning and financing strategies.

The first chart presents total investment requirements by electricity source over time, distinguishing between nuclear, renewable, and non-renewable technologies. All values are expressed in millions of euros (constant prices). The results show that investment needs vary substantially across scenarios, reflecting different technological pathways and decarbonisation ambitions.

In the baseline WEM scenario, total investment remains relatively modest, with cumulative investment by 2050 reaching approximately €15 billion. Investment is concentrated primarily in nuclear and renewables, while fossil-based technologies receive minimal capital. The relatively low investment profile reflects the continuation of current policies and a slower pace of transformation.

In the WAM scenario, which assumes the implementation of additional climate policies aligned with the NECP, investment requirements increase significantly. Cumulative investment by 2050 exceeds €20 billion, with renewables accounting for the majority of capital expenditure. Investment in nuclear also increases moderately, particularly as existing plants are upgraded and new capacity is planned. The overall investment trajectory is more front-loaded, with substantial outlays required during the 2030s.

The Circular (ZEM) scenario exhibits even higher investment needs, with cumulative expenditure approaching €28 billion by 2050. The investment profile is characterised by an initial surge in renewable deployment during the 2020s and early 2030s, followed by a period of lower capital outlays as the system transitions towards nuclear capacity expansion in the late 2040s. This two-phase investment pattern reflects the sequential nature of the decarbonisation pathway, with renewables serving as a bridge technology during nuclear decommissioning.

The 100% renewables scenario represents the most capital-intensive pathway, requiring cumulative investment of approximately €32 billion by 2050. Investment is concentrated almost exclusively in renewable technologies, with solar and wind accounting for the largest shares. The investment profile is strongly front-loaded, with the bulk of expenditure occurring between 2025 and 2040. After 2040, investment gradually declines as the deployment phase reaches completion and the system enters a more stable operational phase.

The second chart breaks down investment by technology, showing the specific contributions of nuclear, solar, wind, hydro, and other sources. The results highlight that solar and wind dominate investment in all scenarios, with solar representing the largest single component in the more ambitious decarbonisation pathways. Nuclear investment is most pronounced in scenarios that include significant new nuclear capacity (WEM, WAM, and Circular), whereas it is absent in the 100% renewables scenario.

Overall, the results underscore the magnitude of financial resources required to deliver the energy transition. The investment requirements vary significantly depending on the chosen pathway, with more ambitious decarbonisation goals necessitating earlier and larger capital outlays. Policymakers will need to ensure that financing mechanisms—such as public investment programmes, green bonds, and private sector incentives—are in place to support the timely deployment of low-carbon technologies. Failure to mobilise adequate investment could delay the transition and compromise climate goals.